Gartner: Microsoft Windows 15% Mobile, Desktop Market Share?
Gartner predicts Microsoft (MSFT) Windows will have only 15 percent market share in 2014. How can that be? The Gartner estimate extends beyond PCs to include tablets and smartphones — where Apple iOS and Google Android remain in growth mode. Here are the estimates and the implications for channel partners.
Gartner predicts:
- Android will double from 505.5 million to 1.061 billion device sales from 2012 to 2014.
- Apple iOS and Mac OS X will grow from 212.8 million to 354.8 million device sales from 2012 to 2014.
- Windows will grow from 346.4 million to 378.1 million device sales from 2012 to 2014.
In some ways, it’s unfair to lump in the traditional Windows PC market with the smartphone and tablet markets. But remember this: Microsoft also is guilty of using the market metrics to describe its own upside potential. While preparing Windows 8 in 2012, the software giant kept talking about the masssive growth prospects for the entire device market — essentially erasing the line between tablets and PCs.
The net result so far? As of April 2013, Windows 8 had sold 100 million licenses but Net Applications estimates that only 3.17 pecent of PCs were running the operating system as of March 13.
Of course, Microsoft hopes to change the conversation with Windows 8.1 (previewed at this week’s BUILD conference) and special Surface sales promotions for Worldwide Partner Conference 2013 (WPC13) attendees. Channel partners should pay close attention since a Surface channel partner program could be on the way.
Still, Gartner essentially is predicting Android will remain king of the device hill — while extending its lead in the years to come…
“In some ways, it’s unfair to
“In some ways, it’s unfair to lump in the traditional Windows PC market with the smartphone and tablet markets.”
How is it unfair? all of these are functionally computers. It would be unfair to skew Microsoft’s success as a company by excluding tablet and phone sales figures, as the majority of consumers buy tablets or phones, while a minority of the same consumers are predicted to buy new desktops or even laptops. Mobile is the future of consumer-grade computing, and the contracted desktop computer market speaks loudly to that.
Microsoft created Windows 8 to compete directly with mobile operating system offerings, precisely because they realized the desktop operating system is no longer the standard of consumer computing; in making the jump themselves, Microsoft made this comparison fair game!
Timothy: I like your
Timothy: I like your reasoning and logic. You’ve won me over. Microsoft wanted PC and tablet unit growth sales lumped together. The industry responded.
-jp
Android is to iOS as Windows
Android is to iOS as Windows was to the original Mac. iOS and the Mac defined the market and Windows (and now Android) democratised, stretched, and commoditised it. Android now exists in all the diversity and at all the sorts of price points old “PCs” did back in the early days of the desktop when Microsoft’s DOS and Windows competed so successfully with the Mac, eventually becoming the criminal monopoly that they are today – by offering lower cost, more diversity, more specialisation, and more openness…
But in this new world, Android and open source outdo Microsoft’s PC model – you can’t be much more open than Android, and you can’t have more platform diversity. MS not only doesn’t have a strong differentiating factor (in fact, they’re just copying the Apple model… ineptly) but they’re at least 2 years behind the game. You simply cannot recover from those factors. The network effect which MS so shamelessly exploited from one monopoly to the next will kill them dead. But they’re so huge, and have so much inertia, it’ll take them a long time to die completely. But now we know their fatal weakness… and the smart amongst us will start to distance themselves now and watch the descent from afar – to avoid the risk of being dragged down with them.
Dave: The Android/iOS
Dave: The Android/iOS comparison to Windows/Mac OS is on the mark. But will Microsoft implode? On the contrary, certain portions of the business (server, cloud) continue to grow rapidly. They lost control of the desktop but gained a big chunk of the server and apps business.
-jp
It is not unfair at all to
It is not unfair at all to include tablets and smartphones in personal computing market share estimations.
Since personal computing is currently heavily shifting towards phones and tablets it is actually important to include them otherwise we get a totally irrelevant market share computation.
Sola: Yup, I now concur.
-jp
Sola: Yup, I now concur.
-jp
Don’t offer comments to
Don’t offer comments to articles if you aren’t going to moderate and publish them, Varguy. Poor form.
Dave: Our team apologizes.
Dave: Our team apologizes. Site upgrades and vacations kept us away from comments for a few days. We’re here. We’re moderating. We appreciate your views and readership.
-jp
Joe Panettieri
The VAR Guy’s alleged manager
But there are 9 billion PCs
But there are 9 billion PCs in the world… All running Windows.
Charles: That’s the overall
Charles: That’s the overall installed base. Gartner’s figures point to NEW annual sales of mobile and desktop devices.
Pointing to 9 billion PCs running Windows worldwide is a bit like pointing to billions of DVD players and VCRs installed worldwide. Historic figures don’t matter because DVD and VCR are no longer growth markets…
-jp