Great Debate: In 5 Years, Will You Own 1 or 20 Computers?
Being a part-time futurist, I attempt to predict events and apply probabilities to certain things happening. The one thing I didn’t predict was my blog about owning 20 computers in 5 years would create the frenzy it did. The reader comments were literally all over the map, both ideological as well as geographic.
Many of the devices I talked about bordered on nonsensical. Who would ever consider a Smart-Jacket anyway? Then recently, The VAR Guy breaks a story about a wearable computing legend working secretly on prototypes for a major manufacturer. Perhaps the 5 year window I called out isn’t that far-fetched.
A Single, General Purpose Device?
The contrarian view to pervasive computing has held that we will look to one (or very few) devices to deliver the world of content to us, regardless of time or place. This device would be very powerful, offer bolted-down security, and incorporate a blistering array of consumer electronics functionality. Think of every category at your nearest Retailer built into a device no larger than your wallet.
This device would integrate wirelessly with its surroundings. For example, it would communicate with your car and use its speakers as an extension to its own functionality. Same goes for your flat panel or even your desktop computer.
Here are some reasons this view of the future makes sense:
- No need for integration or management of dozens of devices per person. Business or personal, less devices means less headaches.
- Not reliant on the promise of the cloud. Local storage and applications have a strong legacy over the past 30 years and will the cloud still have a perception issue around security and performance in the future limiting its adoption?
- No need for ubiquitous connectivity. The coming wave of 3G and WiMax offerings may not convince people that another $40 per month is worthwhile – especially in the new economic reality. Unless Telco companies will bundle with your home networking at the same price, people may look to fewer, smarter devices that do not rely on a 24/7 internet connection.
- Easier to lock down security policy on one device. Users may not be comfortable with the personality “footprints” left on a multitude of devices. Think about the caches and cookies left over from your computing experience. Also, the cost and complexity of incorporating biometrics, encryption and other security features into dozens of devices could be daunting.
- Extension to new usage scenarios. For example, a single device with localized processing and security would be ideal as a payment device at a store.
- Mass-market appeal and economics. The competition to be this “one” device by manufacturers and component makers would drive down cost significantly, benefiting the consumer.
- Industry standard interfaces. Without a plethora of technology representing different sizes, shapes and usage, there would be a lower education and training requirement. This could make technology less imposing on some and more accessible to others.
- Focus on elegant design. The innovation around a single device would drive new levels of design excellence and engineering around quality and ruggedness. For example, being waterproof would be a great feature if this is your only connection to the online world.
A strong argument can be made for or against a future with Pervasive Computing. Some people will argue the middle – the devices that make sense to become smarter and Internet aware will happen naturally over time. This is perhaps a more realistic argument and that having a smart toaster isn’t worth the extra dollars, energy and growing landfills full of obsolete ones.
What do you think? Will you have 20 or more computers connected all the time and providing seamless integration into our everyday lives, or will you stick to our current knitting, a Smartphone and a Notebook?
Jay McBain is director of SMB for Lenovo. Guest blog entries such as this one are contributed on a monthly basis as part of The VAR Guy’s 2010 sponsorship program. Read all of McBain’s guest blog entries here.
No, no, no, no! Please not the notebook / laptop only option. Laptops are so weak!!! I see a comeback of the desktop as an all round media centre / household control nerve centre.
If I had it my way…
In 5 years, people will have a mobile phone (could we still call it like that?) which will satify all our digital uses on the move. Just need to have proper note taking and the product will be perfect, imagine, taking notes on a device with 50 hours autonomy! RFID / bluetooth or whatever will be the flavour of the day will enable us to communicate with shops / museums / libraries / peers / colleagues…
At home, we will have a media centre that will incorporate browsing / gaming / office applications…
At the office… will we still have offices ? 🙂
Ouch comment sent before I had time to finish…
So in answer to 20 computers, I think that most of the objects listed in the previous article will not be fully functionning computers, but that main house computer will control fridge, clocks, smart tv etc..
Mobile phone will control GPS, people’s health, smartcar radio, remote control (already existing) etc..
My personnal experience is that I have streamlined my many geek toys from 5 years ago to 4 : Desktop (OK, I have 3 of those), Netbook, Smartphone and Games Console. They cover all my needs. Things I have replaced by these 4 objects: digital camera, mp3 player, mp4 player, HI-FI, DVD player, TV, Radio, TVix, PDA, first gen mobile phone, recording device, electronic dictionnary to list the things I can think of
Not a chance… So many manufacturers, so many media niches, so many user desires/needs…
We can see already that manufacturers/vendors want lock in to their own formats or media, to lock you as a user/consumer of that device. (Ref: MS office formats, OpenFormat standards, flash vs. no-flash-html5, itunes, locked drm vs open ownership)… Too much variety, and it is ultimately all good!!
Although I wish for a world when all devices could communicate wirelessly with each other, I really think it is not at all realistic.
Any wireless compatibility technology developed today would be replaced by a more capable wireless technology in 2 years or so, and the innovation goes on and on and on and on…
Just look at home video media… 8mm film, VHS vs. beta, then dvd’s, now blue-ray, next what….
Not a chance for one-ring-to-rule-them-all-one-ring-to-bind-them.
D.
Great comments.
Olivier: You brought up an excellent point where we may have very few processing devices that extend to less-smart appliances to deliver content. Companies like iHome will make a killing in this type of environment.
Dulwithe: Another excellent point – I didn’t bring up the standards issue which has always been an inhibitor to innovation. The one thing that makes this different than VHS and Beta is that those are physical pieces of plastic. With digital, it is zero’s and one’s (at least for the next 5 years it will be) and the cloud is the great equalizer on access. In terms of wireless standards, the industry is doing an acceptable job of making sure that routers are backward compatible through previous IEEE standards.
Jay McBain: You summarised artfully what I was trying to explain in many words. As you said, there will / might be less-smart devices controlled by one device.
Sony is also getting ahead with this using the PS3 as a sort of multi-media centre. I know a lot of 30 somethings who don’t really play, but use the PS3 as a media centre. Several other companies are GTM with computers that don’t sit in the study, but are in front of the sofa, in the living room
Dulwithe: Being a Linux user, I am fully aware of lock-ins by manufacturers / vendors 🙂 And you raised a valid point with the evolution of media, however as John McBain said, the cloud will equalize a lot of apps / machines, and perhaps consumer SOA products will emerge. We might also have browser based OS’s like Google Chrome.
But we have to see that it is difficult for several physical formats to cohabit. Ref: DVD was in several formats at the beginning, only one really survived. Some were launched and were not a commercial success, like the minidisc (I think the Blu-ray is sufering from the same problem…for the moment anyway). With digital formats, on the other hand, all one needs is a plugin to read several formats.
The fact that for music for people have to buy different media support is only natural, but can be costly. Say you are a Beatles fan, and bought their original LPs, then you had to buy it again in cassette format to put it in your walkman, then you had to buy the CD version, then the minidisc version, then the mp3 version, and I am sure that it will go on and on like that. You basically bought the rights to the song 5 times over, all that changed is the media :), so I guess companies are all looking forward to a new format.
I was amused last week when people were scoffing at a new WiFi enabled toothbrush.
Enter SmartToothbrushes.
The value proposition (if I can call it that) of a internet enabled toothbrush is simply to drive better personal hygiene in kids. We all know (or have been guilty of ourselves) that some children race through brushing their teeth and no amount of parental guidance about the dangers of plaque, false teeth by 30 or looking funny in front of friends seems to do the trick.
What if social media was the answer? Making brushing teeth the latest craze in Wii games! I know my brushing habits would have been better if I showed up to school the next day and was the subject of ridicule. It is a crazy concept, yes. Will it work? Perhaps.
Enter SmartTreadmill.
Another concept that probably has more chances of succeeding is SmartExercise. We all know that peer pressure drives behavior. Yes, in post-college adults too! If you have ever been in a Biggest Loser work competition, or joined a gym or team with a friend, we know that social pressure can deliver results.
Now you proceed to the treadmill and program a run. Do you virtually run around the neighborhood? Rome? Hawaii Iron Man?
Your choice.
First the treadmill posts on Facebook that you are starting a running “event” that others can join. The trash talk begins. Google Maps then kicks in with an actual route including elevation. The treadmill automatically adjusts height based on the actual route and you watch the houses fly by in “street view” mode on the display. After the run, Facebook posts your time, encourages others to run the exact same route (at any time in the future), and downloads it to their treadmill. With an avatar of you running to motivate of course. More trash talk.
The point is not to convince you that pervasive computing will be real. It will be. The point is what devices do we use in our daily lives that could get “smarter” with an internet connection and integration with your online personality?
Yes, there are privacy concerns and the concept of having technology ubiquitous in your life is unsettling for most people. However, the next generations are growing up with this reality and may not think twice about razzing a schoolmate about their flossing habits.
Enter SmartDental Floss…..
Computer plays an important
Computer plays an important role in our daily life. I think that within 5 year some major changes will occur in communication and in information technology. I have just started researching it on the Internet and found your post to be informative.
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